Africa’s energy ambition meets the politics of land
By Ola Aina
The dispute over Dangote Industries’ planned refinery in Kenya is becoming about more than who owns a piece of land in Lamu.
At stake is a $16 billion project that Kenya sees as part of its strategy to strengthen energy security, while Dangote sees it as a major expansion of its African industrial business. The legal challenge by local residents is exposing questions that could shape the project’s future.
A project caught in a land dispute
The refinery is designed to process 700,000 barrels of crude oil a day and is planned for Lamu because of its deep-water port.
Dangote said the court order over the disputed land would not stop the September 30 groundbreaking, although it could affect activities at the site. The case, brought by 133 residents of Chandavai, is due back before the court on October 14.
The residents claim ancestral rights to the land and have raised concerns about compensation and resettlement. These are claims before the court, not findings of fact.
The dispute highlights a wider challenge facing major infrastructure projects across Africa, where governments and investors often focus on economic transformation while communities raise questions about land ownership, displacement and participation.
Kenya’s energy ambition faces a supply problem
For Kenya, the attraction of the refinery is clear. The country has depended heavily on imported refined petroleum products since its refinery stopped processing crude in 2013. The Lamu project is intended to reduce that dependence and serve wider East African markets.
But the project faces a fundamental commercial question: where will it get enough crude?
Dangote says the refinery will source crude from Uganda and other African producers, as well as international markets. Kenya does not currently produce oil commercially at a scale capable of supplying such a facility.
Reuters has identified crude supply as one of the project’s major challenges, alongside infrastructure and logistics.
A refinery of this scale needs reliable and competitively priced feedstock. Its success will depend on securing crude, moving it efficiently and selling refined products at competitive prices.
African capital, regional ambitions
There is also the question of capital. Dangote has said Kenya and two other East African countries will collectively hold a 30 per cent stake, while American investors are expected to participate.
The arrangement could broaden regional participation and spread part of the financial burden.
The Lamu location adds another layer. The refinery forms part of the wider LAPSSET corridor, designed to connect Kenya with South Sudan and Ethiopia. It could anchor storage, pipelines, petrochemicals and other industries around Lamu.
Much of that supporting infrastructure, however, still needs development.
The test goes beyond the groundbreaking
Environmental concerns also remain. Lamu is home to a UNESCO World Heritage site, while local residents are challenging aspects of the project in court.
The refinery represents an attempt to combine African capital, regional energy security and industrial expansion in one project.
The groundbreaking marks the start of construction, not the end of the questions.
The bigger test will be whether Dangote and Kenya can deliver a project with secure land rights, reliable infrastructure, sufficient crude, sustained financing and community acceptance.
For Lamu, the central question is not simply whether the refinery will be built. It is whether the economic transformation promised by the project can be delivered while resolving the legal, environmental and commercial issues that could shape its future.
Ola Aina is a Black British journalist based in London, specialising in African affairs. She reports on politics, social change, and culture across the continent, bringing depth and context to underreported stories. Through insightful, human-centred journalism, her work connects UK audiences with Africa’s complexities, challenges, and opportunities
